Risk of falling house prices mainly from the development bank loans

 Falling house prices: Bank risk is primarily attributable to accept development loans
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Shanghai Securities News interview a falling house prices will be what impact the bank?
Falling house prices and incremental from the stock two major adverse effects on banks. First of all, falling house prices will lead to the quality of bank assets related to the stock will decline, development loans and individual mortgage loans in the non-performing loans will increase; Secondly, it will affect banking and real estate-related growth, especially the personal mortgage loans, the loans for the banks that are in high quality loans, falling house prices affect the mortgage loans in two ways, one is the individual buyers will be reduced, and second, banks will be based on risk control issuance of mortgage loans is reduced. In fact, the impact of falling house prices on the bank's semi-annual report from the listed banks have been able to discover.
Second, the recent price cuts have started a lot of well-known developers, this indicates that the current house prices have entered a downward spiral?
I personally think that the current housing prices in some areas has entered a downward spiral, it is beyond doubt. had some of soaring housing prices, house prices are too high in areas, into this year, Whether a new house or second-hand house prices have fallen, new home purchase may not be changed outside, but the discount has increased, and some discount or an increase not only the decoration, reduction of property charges, such as giving way to disguise price of parking spaces. These are is the change in nominal house prices, if prices and relative prices from the real point of view, the decline in house prices is even more significant. the first half of this year, PPI rose 7.6%, even though there is no decline in nominal house prices, real house prices fell by 7.6 is equal to %. The income from the residents point of view, the first half of this year, China's urban residents per capita disposable income grew by 6.3%, a fall that caused a liter of house prices relative prices. my personal research and observation, especially from the relative prices, China's housing prices in some areas to fall, otherwise people can not afford to purchase, of course, from a long term trend. of our land area is large, regional differences are great, the future prices there will be differences in the trend. For example, in May of this year, I went to a prefecture-level city in Shandong, the local prices between only two or three thousand dollars, there is little to 4,000 yuan / square meter house, but the region's per capita income is not low, both in Shandong Province and in the country, should belong in the upper reaches, while the urbanization of the region is much room, so I feel like such a difficult area house prices decline in nominal It will be up to.
three, do you think house prices will increase to the number of banks to withstand more than the limit?
it is difficult to accurately judge. from the mortgage, I personally think that even if house prices fall 30 %, the bank will be very small risks, of course, the premise must be true of the personal mortgage, not including the fake mortgage. and for the development banks to grant loans to developers, house prices fell 10% loss may be incurred by banks. This is because most real estate developers real hard own capital Kindu ���� 10%.
four, some recent local government began to take measures to rescue the housing market, such as to reduce the down payment ratio in some places the way, this will banks pose potential threats?
I personally think that this must be the first local government to rescue the market to see how effective, if effective, to achieve the expected goal, the residents began to actively buy a house, house residents to recognize and bear, slightly lower down payment even if the risks facing banks will not be great, of course, makes the speculation a bailout if the wind breaks out, the bank's business is the potential threat. However, my personal observation, the local government to save some of the current City, the effect is not good, people still do not buy it.
five, your current real estate development loans and risk of personal housing mortgage loans how to read?
no doubt that the current real estate development loans the risk is more large, and some have resulted in actual loss. and personal mortgage loans, as long as is true of mortgage loans, the procedures in place, even those real estate speculators in the mortgage loans, the risk for banks are not large, the actual loss will extremely limited.
six, falling house prices which banks which type of bank or large?
It is understood that since the beginning of 2006, some big banks began to shrink development loans and some areas of high housing prices individual mortgage loans, but at the same time, other banks took over a large number of these open start issuing loans and mortgage loans, the so-called individual banks, mortgage loans, at greater risk.
Note: This interview published in today's